Europe felt a moment of respite on Monday, as the tension sparked by the introduction of a new comprehensive peace framework for ending the war appeared – momentarily – to have been defused. A senior US official spoke of "notable headway" after bilateral negotiations in Geneva. On Monday night, Russian leadership made its countermove: an extensive attack of rocket attacks on Kyiv.
The Rhythm of Negotiation and Warfare
The chain of contrasting events captured the grim essence of the recent timeframe. By day, diplomatic battles are fought: optimistic declarations are issued from various governments. Considerable effort is allocated on containing particular approaches. By night, Moscow brutally reminds the world that, for them, conflict continues to be the main instrument for achieving "peace".
Nighttime Reality
As military strikes unfolded into the early hours of Tuesday, the immediate reality of Ukraine's vulnerability was revealed. Ukraine is able to track projectile deployments from Russian territory, a capability enabled by timely intelligence. From observation points, defense planes that had been deployed to counter approaching aerial threats roared overhead – advanced fighter aircraft delivered to Ukraine by Western partners.
Moments later, Kyiv's anti-aircraft weapons activated: multiple launches fired to intercept a Russian ballistic missile. This was a sophisticated defense system at work, probably provided by partner states. Every launch shakes the surroundings, shaking the windows. The instant of fear quickly transforms into grim resignation: possibly the hostile projectile won't hit its mark this time, sparing the city from devastation and another blackout.
Continuous Dangers
Not long after, a automatic firearm engaged a drone in the vicinity, part of a rapid response unit – probably allied-provided weaponry. Regrettably, the projectiles didn't strike the hostile drone – it pressed on overhead toward its destination.
Periodically, this continued until dawn. Kyiv awoke to the morning news: seven people killed, destruction and heating outages in multiple buildings as a result of the evening attack. As customarily, everyone still maintained normal activities – enduring hostilities. But those entire period illustrated Ukraine's critical military reliance on external assistance – a need that regional partners are evidently unprepared to fill in the near term.
Ineffective Peace Efforts
The 28-point plan from US administration generated strong feelings, controversy and serious worry – and momentarily shifted focus from Ukraine's major integrity crisis in years. Yet, we have witnessed similar scenarios, after prior negotiation attempts and bilateral conferences.
Every new proposal from American administration unfolds according to the identical sequence: a diplomatic cavalry charge against Ukraine, which Kyiv, with other European capitals, succeeds in resisting. They contain the crisis but never actually secure success. This trend will, undoubtedly, endure.
Tactical Assessments
It is easy to blame specific actors of repeatedly advocating Moscow's conditions. But that does not seem to be the whole story. US administration works based on a assumption familiar among international relations experts: you cannot secure via talks what you have been unable to protect through force. The White House believes that it is impossible to pressure the Kremlin to relinquish the territory that it presently holds in Ukraine's occupied territories.
The issue is that while recognising this factual reality, Washington does little to deter Moscow, through statements or actions, from assuming that the status quo will not evolve additionally in its benefit in the coming year.
Conflicting Perspectives
Therefore, Moscow is convinced that the clock favors them – that Ukraine and its supporters are approaching exhaustion. Their incentive to sign a deal that does not give them the maximum possible gain is close to zero. There may be numerous efforts to stop fighting, but they will carry on as long as Russia's leader remains highly assured in the conclusion.
On the contrary, Ukraine's government believes that Ukraine can still endure, slowly losing lives and land but preventing a entire defensive failure until situations evolve in its favour.
Present Conditions
Objectively, there are no real preconditions for a ceasefire. Now, subjective factors are coming into play: personal goals to negotiate peace and secure international recognition, and the government's dual difficulties – on one hand, not to alienate a key ally, and on the other, to rally Ukrainians around the country's interests against any initiative Kyiv finds unsuitable, so that their focus does not switch to domestic problems. And although their mission will now be much harder after current events, it remains very improbable that this will alter their fundamental strategy.
These opposing factors are guiding negotiations.
Summary and Prospects
It took a mere seven days to kill the proposed articles of the latest plan. Forceful and unpredictable management of the matter by American leadership, pushback by Ukraine and the remaining European nations, along with soothing efforts of representatives, and finally, latest revelations, all achieved their purpose.
While new initiatives based on old ideas are forthcoming, Kyiv, London and other European capitals should arrive at a critical understanding: Ukraine and Europe will only be able to resist negotiation assaults from Washington that are rooted in Kremlin requirements and reflect certain reluctance to change the course of events, if they maintain solidarity and strengthen their defence capabilities at a considerably quicker tempo. If they do, no combination of diplomatic or military actions will be able to overcome them. In the meantime, Ukraine's capability to counter nocturnal attacks will, for the coming months, largely rely on sustained allied backing.
